Highlights
There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US.
According to Google Trends, searches for “stolen packages” peak every year in December.
The research shows that many more porch pirates are stolen than the total amount of property crimes reported to the FBI.
The financial toll of these thefts amounts to $16 billion. Podcasts of this article are available.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former senior crime prevention and statistics specialist at the Ministry of Justice Clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former adjunct associate professor of criminology and public affairs at the University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the national media campaign “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime.” Successful media campaigns against crime produced by the state.
Thirty-five years leading award-winning (50+) public relations for state and national criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often focusing on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcast series. Produced a unique and emulated style of proactive government public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study – Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Media Success: Everything You Need to Survive Reporters and Your Organization‘ available from Amazon and other booksellers.
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Daily news summaries of crime, violent crime, law enforcement and the justice system are provided under ‘Google Crime News’ in the banner of this website.
A comprehensive overview of crime in recent years is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The US
Editor’s note: This article provides abbreviated data. Please refer to the full report from SafeWise for a complete analysis. Disclosure, SafeWise uses expert opinions for their research. I have provided expert advice in previous SafeWise reports.
The SafeWise methodology is at the bottom of this article.
Article
Podcasts of this article are available at Spotify And YouTube.
Searches for ‘stolen package’ peak every Decemberaccording to Google Trends.
Not much quantitative research has been done on porch package theft. Therefore, the data below is useful.
Package theft from your porch is a national problem. Data through SafeWise documents the extent of porch package theft, the hardest hit areas and what citizens are doing to combat porch pirates.
There will be 120 million porch package thefts in 2024, far more than all categories of property crime recorded by the FBI in 2023.
Twenty-three percent of porch package thefts are reported to the police.
They estimate that 260,000 cases of package theft occur every day. Considering that approximately 25% of survey respondents had multiple packages stolen at the same time, the number of stolen packages could easily exceed 325,000 per day.
The financial toll of these thefts: $16 billion in losses.
This trend reflects the continued vulnerability of deliveries, as more than one in three people have experienced package theft at some point in their lives.
The report also includes:
Top 10 largest metros for package theft in 2023 (New York City leads in numbers – East and Midwest metro areas are particularly affected – Cleveland leads in rates)
What people do to discourage package thefts (usually video install)
Who is responsible for package thefts (that’s you, but in their study 45% of victims received replacements from the seller).
Which houses are the most vulnerable:
Homes with porches less than 25 feet from the street provide easy access for thieves
Packages visible from the road act as ‘open invitations’ to would-be thieves
Surprisingly, dead-end streets are just as vulnerable to package theft as other types of streets.
This is how you prevent package thefts (see article for additional explanation):
Sign up for delivery notifications
Requires signatures.
Make alternative arrangements
Use technology
Work with your neighbors.
Eleven states have laws on the books aimed at deterring porch pirates.
How this data affects property crime statistics and the fear of crime
The 120 million doorstep thefts each year impact our understanding of property crime and potentially our fear of crime. It changes our understanding of property crime statistics, especially those provided by the FBI based on crimes reported to law enforcement.
There is an endless debate about whether crime is rising or falling and how incidents influence the fear of crime. Porch package theft is not included as a unique category in official FBI crime statistics, other than the 23 percent of incidents reported to police under the theft theft category.
For those of us in the justice system who have direct contact with victims, we know that theft can have significant monetary and psychological consequences
According to the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2023Households in the United States experienced 13.6 million property casualties in 2023. The number of property casualties was similar to the number in 2022, but higher than the 12.8 million in 2019.
By 2023, the FBI suggests a decline in all types of property crimes (8.5 million), except car theft. If the methodology for this report proves valid, it may not be correct.
According to Gallup, the fear of crime is at an all-time high.
There has been a dramatic increase in the number of security devices purchased per industry document.
As mentioned, the vast majority of what we call crime goes unreported to law enforcement agencies and the FBI for their national statistics. SafeWise suggests that only 23 percent of package thefts are reported to police, which is less than the 30 percent of all property crimes reported according to the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics.
When you factor in data from the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey, identity thefts, Gallup data, shoplifting, and other sources, it’s clear that many (most?) Americans are victimized every year. About 80 percent of what we call crime are property events.
We deal with more than 40 million criminal victims every year. Victimization can exceed half the population when you combine violent and property crime with identity theft and cybercrime.
Now we must consider adding 120 million porch parcel thefts to the crime totals.
Conclusions
There are several articles suggesting that America’s fear of crime (at record levels according to Gallup) is inaccurate, if not downright foolish. The vast majority of crimes are property events.
During my time as a police officer and senior crime prevention specialist for the USDOJ’s clearinghouse and the National Crime Prevention Council, I have encountered a wide range of citizens who have been deeply affected by both violent And property crimes. I’ve seen people move (at great expense) when their garage was broken into to steal bikes. People spend millions of dollars on security equipment. In recent elections, crime was a top priority for voters.
Property crime plays an important role in our understanding of crime and fear of crime. The package theft data contributes to our understanding of victimization in the US.
SafeWise methodology
There appears to be some questionable methodology used by a variety of private sources when covering crime statistics. Most use FBI crime data (most crimes are not reported to law enforcement) to further monetary objectives. SafeWise sells home security equipment.
However, SafeWise appears to have put significant effort into its methodology, far beyond what most private sources do. Their report is based on estimates, but readers should understand that all crime data is based on estimates, whether it comes from the FBI, the National Crime Victimization Survey, or Gallup.
Their report is based on a combination of FBI crime statistics, an independent security investigation, and their own research data. They collected responses from at least 150 people per state (a total of 7,500 participants nationwide) to get a representative picture of package theft in the US. Two-thirds of respondents provided insight into the different types of crime they had experienced, while the remaining third were all victims of package theft.
The SafeWise Package Theft Survey 2024 used a 16-question online survey administered in August 2024 using Pollfish. They collected responses from 2,500 respondents in the US who had a package stolen at some point in their lives. The survey asked participants about their firsthand experiences with package theft.
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