1. Wage growth
“The Fed does not like to pick up wage growth. So if wage growth stays flat or remains lower, it is positive for mortgage interest. “
2. Job growth
“If the job growth slows down, and noticeable – if you are sub 100,000 … keep an eye on that. The growth of jobs that delay, wage growth slows down, that is all beneficial for the rates. “
3. Hours worked
“This can be beneficial for the lower of the 10-year yield, because the only one with the labor data has again made a very low bar this year. This report and the following two or three reports have all the Doge cuts in terms of shooting. “
Mohtashami said he keeps an eye on how the general economy responds to actions of the Trump administration and their comments they want to see lower rates.
“I am more interested in withdrawing the money and how that influences other states. And every state that has federal financing runs the risk of slowing down, “said Mohtashami. “So I think that 2025 labor data will be interesting to see. Is it sufficient decrease in expenses to matter?
“But the key is that if the labor force remains constant or increases, that can increase the unemployment rate. And then the Fed must make a comment. This has really been a fascinating week between the trade deficit, Germany expenditure, the negative GDP data -and then it is also a job week.
‘But we are about to be true [taking money out of the system] has been deliberately done and we see the aftermath because it is such a sharp absorption of money and people who leave. Is it enough to really tilt the private sector, what really matters? I am sure the White House is very happy that the mortgage interest rate is lower. “
Mohtashami noted that Friday’s labor data will demonstrate where the return of 10 years will go and then next week we will receive the data from vacancies. “The data from vacancies are really crucial because the Fed is a big fan of the vacancy data,” said Mohtashami.
