The total non-agricultural salary administration increased by 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate hardly changed to 4.1%, according to today’s report by the US Bureau or Labor Statistics. Employment in health care, financial activities, transport and storage and social assistance. The employment of the federal government fell.
My job growth spelling before 2025 is between 133,000 and 151,000 jobs. We currently have an average of 138,000 jobs that were created every month in 2025. In the coming months we will see whether the US economy can withstand the job loss in the government sector, spends the spending in the economy and a housing market on the brink of losing residential construction projects. These factors would stimulate the unemployment rate above 4.3% – De Lijn in the sand for the FED.
Since jobs of the government make an important contribution to job growth last year, achieving comparable results in 2025 will be a challenge. It is important to distinguish between federal employees and hiring the state and the local government. With reduced economic expenses, however, we expect that the employment of the government is less a growth factor in labor data. This leads us back to the private sector and jobs in construction. In the recent report we have not observed real growth in this category and the graph below illustrates how critical this sector is for the overall economic cycle.
Builders are confronted with stress due to rising mortgage interest and the threat of higher wood rates, which leads to a significant decrease in their reliability data.
I recently discussed this in one Interview with Yahoo Finance. We identified two sectors in 2025; One is about to report significant job losses. The question is whether the private sector can effectively absorb some displaced government workers. Can the mortgage interest rate also fall to 6% to support builders?
As we start the rest of the year, take it into account: if the job growth slows down among 133,000 jobs per month and the growth data of the labor force will remain increased, unemployment will rise higher than 4.3%. The Fed has kept the target speed of the goal low so that the bond market can understand the limits of pain on the labor market before he decides to intervene.
Moreover, the housing market tends to improve when the mortgage interest rate drops from 6.64% to 6%, so we are approaching a critical point with interest rates. However, it is essential to concentrate more on work trends than on inflation and the private sector and residential building courses while we look at 2025.
In the past, the mortgage interest rate has fallen to help the builders keep things intact, but 2025 is much different than in recent years, and the supply and margin pressure have an influence on their business model.
