Highlights
Is there a connection between prison populations, correctional supervision and crime? Based on the best available evidence from the US Department of Justice, this seems plausible.
The total adult surveillance population has decreased by 23% since 2012.
For the 15th year in a row, the percentage of correctional adult supervision declined in 2022.
The continued decline in the number of parolees has contributed to the lowest percentage of adults under community supervision in 36 years.
The incarceration rate, 700 per 100,000 U.S. adult residents, increased in 2022 (from 680 per 100,000 in 2021 and 660 per 100,000 in 2020). But the overall number of prisons and jails has fallen significantly since 2012.
Although incarceration rates rose for the second consecutive year in 2022, they were still lower than pre-pandemic rates at year’s end.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former senior crime prevention and statistics specialist at the Ministry of Justice Clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former adjunct associate professor of criminology and public affairs at the University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the national media campaign “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime.” Successful media campaigns against crime produced by the state.
Thirty-five years leading award-winning (50+) public relations for state and national criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often focusing on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcast series. Produced a unique and emulated style of proactive government public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study – Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Media Success: Everything You Need to Survive Reporters and Your Organization‘ available from Amazon and other booksellers.
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Article
According to the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, which uses the National Crime Victimization Survey, violent crime increased 44 percent in their last official report released in 2023.
This would be the largest increase in violence in the country’s history.
According to crimes reported to the police (the vast majority don’t), compiled by the FBI for 2023 in a preliminary report, violent crime is down 3.1 percent in metropolitan areas where the vast majority of Americans live. Robberies and car thefts increased in metropolitan areas. The exceptions are murders and rapes, which analysts say have declined significantly Jeff Asherthe number of murders will continue to decline in 2024.
For 2022, the FBI offers twelve categories of crimes (thirteen of which include hate crimes). Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) remained the same. Hate crimes increased.
According to the FBI, 2021 homicides increased significantly between 2019 and 2021 (nearly 30 percent in 2020 and 4.3 percent in 2021). The number of rapes has also increased in 2021.
A summons? Homicide rates are falling because they rose 50 percent in cities between 2019 and 2022, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association, known as a regression to the mean.
Experts say violent crime is dropping significantly. Based on 2021-2023 data from the US Department of Justice, National Crime Victimization shows a dramatic increase in violence, while rreported crimes (the vast majority do not) show inconsistency.
Is there a link between correctional populations and crime?
Correlations do not and cannot imply causation prove that the increase or decrease in the correctional population has an impact on crime.
However, according to the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, 82 percent of those released from state prisons over the course of a decade were rearrested and 61 percent were returned to prison. They had 4.2 million arrests before their incarceration. Forty-two percent had five to ten prior incarcerations.
The US Sentencing Commission provides data showing that longer incarcerations for violent offenders have reduced the number of new crimes.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics states that 43 percent of state probationers were rearrested for a criminal offense more than three years.
Thus, it is likely that there is a link between correctional populations and crime according to multiple federal research projects. Although incarceration rates rose for the second consecutive year in 2022, they were still lower than pre-pandemic rates at year’s end.
Bureau of Justice Statistics
According to estimates, at the end of 2022, an estimated 5,407,300 individuals were under the supervision of adult prison systems in the United States, and 3,668,800 of those were under community supervision. Correctional Populations in the United States, 2022 – Statistical Tables And Probation and parole in the United States, 2022two reports released today by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
The Adult Correctional System is responsible for all correctional supervision in the United States, including both individuals incarcerated in prisons and individuals on community supervision and parole.
About 1 in 48 adult U.S. residents (2%) were under some form of correctional supervision at the end of 2022.
More than two-thirds of persons under correctional supervision were under supervision in the community on probation or parole (3,668,800), while nearly one-third (1,827,600) were incarcerated in state or federal prisons or local jails.
The overall adult supervised population decreased by approximately 1% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022, while the prison population increased by 3%. The total adult surveillance population has decreased by 23% since 2012.
For the 15th year in a row, the number of adults under supervision fell in 2022, from a peak of 3,210 under supervision per 100,000 U.S. adult residents in 2007 to 2,060 per 100,000 in 2022.
The incarceration rate, 700 per 100,000 U.S. adult residents, increased in 2022 (from 680 per 100,000 in 2021 and 660 per 100,000 in 2020).
Although incarceration rates rose for the second consecutive year in 2022, they were still lower than pre-pandemic rates at year’s end.
In 2022, the number of persons under community supervision in the United States decreased by 1%, from 3,705,500 on January 1 to 3,668,800 on December 31.
The trial population remained relatively stable (from 2,981,500 to 2,990,900; remained below 3 million for the second year in a row), while the number of parolees decreased from 745,300 to 698,800 in 2022 (a decrease of 6.2%) .
The number of parolees declined in 2022 in 36 states and the District of Columbia. The decline in parolees in 2022 followed a 7.1% decline in 2021, the two largest declines since BJS began collecting parole information on an annual basis in 1980.
The continued decline in the number of parolees has contributed to the lowest percentage of adults under community supervision in 36 years.
In 2022, the rate of persons under community supervision fell to 1,401 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents, the lowest rate recorded since 1986 (1,358 per 100,000).
The parole rate decreased from 309 to 267 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents, while the probation rate increased slightly from 1,140 to 1,142 per 100,000. The number of probationary registrations increased by 10.7%, from 1,419,300 in 2021 to 1,571,500 in 2022.
These reports, related documents, and additional information about BJS statistical publications and programs are available on the BJS website at bjs.ojp.gov.
Conclusions
The debate over correctional populations and their impact on crime will forever be hotly contested. However, based on the best available research, it is more than possible to suggest the possibility that lower rates of correctional supervision and incarceration play a role in increasing violence and overall crime.
In 2022 there were approximately 954,000 fewer test subjects than in 2012.
In 2012, there were 1,570,000 people in prison. That was true 1,230,000 people in prison in 2022. There has been a steady and continuing decline in the prison population. The same goes for prisons. Although incarceration rates rose for the second consecutive year in 2022, they were still lower than pre-pandemic rates at year’s end.
A link between incarceration and community supervision rates and violence appears plausible based on the best available evidence from the U.S. Department of Justice.
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