New frame data
I am pleased that data of new lists have shown growth year after year in 2025, and we have achieved my minimum target of 80,000 during the seasonal peak period of this data line. However, I hoped in more weeks between 80,000 and 100,000, which would be very normal. So far this year we have not seen that in the data line, and this week we saw a slight decrease compared to the last week.
To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. Here are the new list data from last week in the past two years:
- 2025: 76,181
- 2024: 71,666
Weekly inventory data
The best story for housing in 2025 is that active stock levels will reach the lower end of the 2019 stock levels. It took a long time to approach pre-Pandemic levels, and although a few states have already achieved this, it marks a significant improvement compared to the seriously low levels of 2020-2022. Although this week saw a slow stock growth, the year was generally positive.
- Weekly inventory change (June 13th-30): Inventory Rose van 825,761 Unpleasant 828,890
- The same week last year (June 14, 21 June): Inventory came from 620.622 Unpleasant 634,120
Price percentage
In a typical year, about a third of the house price reductions experience, which emphasizes the dynamic nature of the housing market. Many homeowners adjust their selling prices as stock levels rise and the mortgage interest rate remains increased.
For my 2025 Price forecastI expected a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will probably see negative real house prices again. In 2024, my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate, especially because the mortgage interest rate fell to 6% and the demand improved in the second half of 2024. As a result, house prices continued to rise by 4% in 2024.
The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth for 2025. Here are the percentages of houses that have seen the price reductions last week:
Application -Buy data
The details of the purchase request have been a striking line for 2025, because we have shown 20 consecutive weeks of growth on an annual basis. Now, if the mortgage interest were almost 6%, this data would not be shocking at all; However, we float almost 7%for most of the year. I would not have taken this bet if someone had told me that the data would be at the end of June.
Here are the weekly data for 2025:
- 11 Positive Lectures
- 9 Negative measurements
- 3 PLAT PRINTS
- 20 consecutive weeks of positive data on an annual basis
Weekly pending sale
Our weekly hanging home sales offers a glimpse of week to week in the data; However, this data line can also be influenced by holidays and any shocks in the short term. Nevertheless, last week’s data showed growth in our weekly pending turnover.
Weekly pending sales for last week in the past two years:
- 2025: 70.352
- 2024: 67,087
Total current turnover
The last weekly information about total pending sale of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Mortgage interest is usually approximately 6% necessary for considerable growth on the housing market. Although the total pending housing sales is slightly higher than last year, it is surprising to see that this data remains stable despite raised rates in 2025. As you can see in the graph below, the seasonal peak period has passed and the seasonal decrease in the data has started.
Weekly pending the sale of the past week in recent years:
- 2025: 405,766
- 2024: 396,149
10-year revenue and mortgage interest
In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:
- Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%
Last week was moved, characterized by essential data, a Federal Reserve Meeting and statements by President Trump and FHFA Director Bill Pulte criticizes Powell. Despite all this, there was no significant movement in bond returns or mortgage interest. Things have calmed considerably since the implementation of the Godzilla rates, with conversations about possible deals. Last week the mortgage interest rate just moved from 6.91% to 6.86%.
Mortgage spreads
The mortgage spreads have been raised since 2022, but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads because the markets had treated the rates, but the things have improved as the market has calmed down. It is crucial to see that spreads are getting better on days when the return of 10 years rises, because that limits the damage of a higher return of 10 years.
If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.70% higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest rate would be 0.80% to 0.60 %% lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads usually varied between 1.60% and 1.80%.
The coming week: home sales, house price data and fed speeches
This week we will see both existing and new housing sales data. For existing home sales I hope to see the monthly sales figures above 4 million again. With regard to the sale of new home, I will keep an eye on whether the trend of negative revisions will continue. We will also receive data from the price price at home, which must indicate a cooling trend in house prices. In addition, unemployed claims will be released on Thursday; This data line has so far been increased before 2025.
We will also hear from many FED presidents this week, and it is always good to see how the bond market reacts to each of their talk points.
