Bitcoin is trading at $68,247 at the time of writing, about $20,000 less than what it costs to mine a single coin. Crude oil has risen 51% in a month to nearly $100 a barrel, pushing electricity costs — miners’ biggest operating expense — higher at exactly the wrong time. The numbers are tough, and they’re getting worse.
Yet on-chain data tells a different story about what miners actually do with the coins they produce.
The scale of the squeeze
According to Jeremyfounder of Glyde, Bitcoin miners currently lose approximately $19,400 on each coin they mine, based on an average production cost of $88,000 at a market price of $68,600 at the time of his analysis. Network issues decreased by 7.76%, the second largest negative adjustment of 2026.
The hashrate has fallen to 920 EH/s, compared to the record of 1 zetahash last year. Block times have been extended to 12 minutes and 36 seconds against a 10-minute target, a visible sign that mining machines are being shut down as operators leave unprofitable positions.
The oil price adds fuel to the fire
Crude oil is currently trading at $99,207, up 51.15% over the past month, while Brent crude is worth $113,647 – up 60.57% over the same period. For a sector where electricity represents the majority of operating costs, rising energy prices are simultaneously squeezing margins in the other direction.
Miners aren’t just dealing with a falling Bitcoin price. Their costs rise while their revenues fall.
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The signal in the data
Despite the pressure, Cryptoquant author and analyst Darkfost has noted a development that is contrary to what the pain would suggest. Monthly average Bitcoin inflows from miners to Binance have fallen to around 4,316 BTC, the lowest level since June 5, 2023.
On all exchanges the figure reaches 4,381 BTC. Miners aren’t selling even though they’re operating at a loss, and they’re still holding an estimated 1.8 million BTC in reserve. Darkfost described the current decline in inflows as a constructive signal, noting that the structural selling pressure from the miner cohort appears to be temporarily easing.
What history says about this setup
Jeremy pointed out a remarkable pattern. Every time Bitcoin traded this far below its average cost of production in 2019 and 2022, it marked a cycle low.
His conclusion was immediate: “The last two times this happened, the bottom was already in.”
History does not guarantee a recurrence. But the combination of collapsing mining sales and the deeply submerged manufacturing economy has preceded recoveries rather than further declines in previous cycles.
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Frequently asked questions
When BTC falls below mining costs, miners operate at a loss, often cutting production or shutting down machines, which can indicate market stress or a potential cycle bottom.
Recent data shows miners are holding rather than selling as foreign exchange inflows decline, which reduces selling pressure and could support price stability.
Bitcoin may come under pressure in the short term, but reduced miner sales and previous cycle patterns indicate the market could be approaching a potential recovery phase.
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