This article is available in Spanish.
As the US presidential election approaches, the crypto community is abuzz with speculation about how the outcome will affect the Bitcoin price.
With just 15 days left until the election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, options traders are becoming increasingly optimistic about a new all-time high for Bitcoin, regardless of who wins the presidency.
Traders prefer call options ahead of the US elections
According to a recent report From Bloomberg, options traders are betting significantly that Bitcoin will reach an all-time high of $80,000 by the end of November.
Notably, implied volatility for Bitcoin options, especially those expiring around Election Day, remains high. More and more traders prefer call options, which give the buyer the right to buy BTC at new highs.
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David Lawant, head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX, commented: “I believe the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well regardless of the election outcome.” His analysis indicates that activity options around the upcoming elections shows a clear preference for upside potential.
The political landscape offers contrasting views on the emerging cryptocurrency landscape. Trump, who has been an outspoken advocate for digital assets in recent months, is seen by many as a pro-crypto candidate, leading to the characterization of Bitcoin as a “Trump trade.”
On the other hand, Harris has pledged to support a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, a shift from the stricter scrutiny during the Biden administration marked by continued enforcement actions and lawsuits against key industry players.
According to the report, in addition to political factors, traders also take into account non-political influences, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and ongoing concerns about inflation, contributing to a generally optimistic sentiment.
Data shows that there is strong demand for $80,000 Bitcoin calls
Data from Deribit, a crypto options exchange, shows a declining put-to-call ratio, indicating more traders are buying call options then it becomes apparent as the year draws to a close.
Elaborating on the current trading patterns investors are seeing, Yev Feldman, co-founder of SwapGlobal, said: “We are seeing traders buying calls around $68,000 and betting close to $66,000, suggesting many are positioning for a breakout in both directions.”
Feldman further added that there is limited reason to expect a downward collapse after the election, making an upward move seem more plausible for the market’s leading cryptocurrency.
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Open interest data also shows that call contracts expiring on November 29 are heavily concentrated around $80,000, with the second most popular strike price at $70,000.
For contracts expiring on December 27, interest rates are around $100,000 and $80,000, while the most sought-after strike price for calls expiring on November 8 is $75,000.
Interestingly, call options command higher premiums than their put counterparts, according to the skewed term structure, which reflects the price dynamics between these options.
“This indicates that investors are using the options market more as a tool to capture potential upside, rather than as protection against downside risks,” Lawant explains.
The researcher also pointed out that opinions are about non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies remain divided, with less consensus on how these assets might perform under different electoral scenarios.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $67,370.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Credit : www.newsbtc.com
