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Because Bitcoin accurately recovers above $ 100,000 and Altcoins Bleedend Momentum, traders ask obviously: Has the crypto -bull run over? According to systematic trader Adam Bakay (@abetrade), the answer is not that clear. In a detailed market breakdown on 22 June, Bakay offered a technically well -founded, careful defensive assessment – one that recognizes geopolitical risks but remains rooted in positioning and price structure.
Has the Bitcoin Bull run over?
“Looking at the monthly and weekly timetables, we are still technically in an upward trend,” Bakay writtenIt noted that “no key swing was broken and the 365-day rolling vwap was respected during the withdrawal in April.” Nevertheless, he admits that “the failure to make new all-time that are comparable to the top in 2021” is a care, especially in view of the accumulation by players such as BlackRock, which now contains approximately 3.5% of Bitcoin’s total range.
It is that divergence – between strong institutional importance and a market that has difficulty breaking higher – that Bakay has made Bakay more careful in recent weeks. “That’s why I have been very defensive and most of my transactions kept in the short term,” he said.
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His commercial view focuses on two potential technical scenarios: either a recovery of the $ 100,000 support area “probably if the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate any further” or a dip in the $ 97,000 $ 95,000, where strong technical support lives in the form of the 200-day rodent average.
Nevertheless, Bakay made it clear that he is not inadequate the market. “I am currently not considering short transactions because of my current positioning,” he emphasized, adding that open interest rate is falling and that we start to see the “first signs of clear Spotbid interest since the LOSS of April.” In the meantime, the option market flashes early caution: the 25 -Delta Risk Reversal Skew is around -5, not yet at panic levels, but trending more negative.
Crypto Bull Run in Jeopardy
Bakay was remarkable bone on Ethereum. “Eth almost had his moment, but of course had to be a disappointment,” he said. He partly attributes the failed outbreak how quickly the story ‘Defi Summer 2025’ went viral. “People get too horny and the market made them punish them,” he noticed, referring to his own tweet a few days earlier.
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The technical image on ETH also inspires no trust. “During important market movements, as we had at the beginning of May, the last thing you want to see is the price that is withdrawn in that area,” he explained and said that the next meaningful support is close to $ 1,800. On the daily graph, Ethereum is entitled to a confluence of support-so on the 90-day rolling vwap as what he calls a ‘crucial level’. Nevertheless, just like Bitcoin, Bakay sees the short fate of Ethereum as largely dependent on developments in the Middle East.
In positioning, ETH also shows signs of a sold -up environment, although Bakay believes that high volatility in ETH options has led traders to use spreads instead of outright directional bets. “Positioning now very clearly points to the possible upward reversal in both perpetual and place,” he said.
Altcoins received no delay. “Altcoins have not had fun for a while,” wrote Bakay, pointing out that “every time it starts to look better, it gets worse almost immediately.” He notes that the expected rotation of Bitcoin in Altcoins has not been materialized, and the real rotation now seems to be in crypto-related shares that better reflect the ETF-driven macro-trade.
Even strong names such as Solana fade. “Sol has withdrawn almost the entire rally from April,” he warned. The most important level to view is $ 100. “There is not much of a technical support of $ 100”, and if “shit de fan touches”, Bakay would like to offer to offer that round number.
Bakay also briefly touched two newer Altcoins – Hype and Fartcoin – which offers one solid product and the other attracted interest through volatility and liquidity. “Fartcoin would become attractive if it could reclaim the $ 1 or $ 0.50 area. Hype can find a Bounce sub-$ 30.”
His final thoughts were pragmatic: “We are not in easy market conditions, with much geopolitical uncertainty and markets can be significantly influenced by a single press release.” Although he believes that the market is currently ‘too short’, he remains very aware of the possibility that a correction of several months is already in the game. “I don’t think it’s necessary to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife,” he concluded. “I would rather wait for some positive news and signs of a lower time frame reversal.”
In essence, Bakay does not mention the top. But his post makes one thing clear: this is not a market for bravado. It is a time for restraint, tight risk management and respect for volatility – especially when the bullish case is no longer on its side.
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 101,847.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com
Credit : www.newsbtc.com
