Weekly ongoing sales
Pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, although results may be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. The last five weeks have been positive in our weekly sales data. We’ll see if that moves forward, especially now that interest rates have hit a yearly high and could continue higher this week.
It usually takes 30-60 days for the weekly pending sales to reach the sales data. Typically, mortgage rates above 6.64% and a break above 7% have a major impact on the data. Below 6.25% has been the ‘sweet spot’ in recent years, where short-term variables are not taken into account.
Weekly open sales last week for the past two years:
- 2026: 71,230
- 2025: 68,726
Mortgage purchase application details
Purchase application data is a forward-looking data line: growth here drives home sales about 30 to 90 days ahead, and last week we saw 12% year-over-year growth with 1% growth week over week. Weekly growth cooled last week and this week we are at risk of a negative weekly print. This often happens when you have consecutive weeks of rising interest rates.
What I really appreciate for this data line is at least 12-14 weeks of positive weekly growth. If you can achieve this on top of the annual growth, we definitely have something legit. For 2026, each week has shown positive year-over-year growth. The week-to-week data was positive; however, that is much easier to do with rates under 6.25%.
Here’s 2026 so far:
- 5 positive prints from week to week
- 4 negative prints from week to week
- 1 flat week-by-week printout
- Seven weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
- 10 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
10-year interest rate and mortgage interest rate
In the HousingWire forecast for 2026, I expected the following ranges:
- Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year interest rate fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
When the conflict with Iran began, I said I would be shocked if it continued beyond March 21 because of the economic consequences of the war, including higher energy and input costs. On Friday, March 20, the bond market took the conflict more seriously and for the first time since September 2025, the 10-year yield closed above 4.31%. The bond market has now priced in all interest rate cuts and is now pricing in a rate increase in 2026.
This week is crucial for me because we now have a clear path to the 10-year yield reaching 4.60% – the high of my forecast. If this conflict continues and worsens, bond yields will rise and more rate hikes will be priced in.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads remain a positive story for residential construction in 2026, reducing mortgage rate volatility, and are close to normal levels. Mortgage spreads tightened slightly as bond yields fell in February, as spreads tried to make mortgage rates less volatile due to falling rates. Now they have also become worse because of this conflict.
For now, spreads are still very positive, but their improvement is the only thing keeping rates from rising above 7% again.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.97%. Again, this weekly data does not take into account Friday’s one-day spread.
However, I wanted to show this week’s interest rates against the worst levels of spreads over the past three years, with the 10-year yield at current levels.
- If we had the worst mortgage rate in 2023, the mortgage rate would now be 7.67%, not 6.53%
- If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.29% today.
- If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates would be 7.10% today.
Weekly home inventory data
Home inventory should now begin its annual seasonal increase. However, the inventory growth rate has slowed significantly from last year’s peak levels, to the point that we could potentially see some negative prints in our weekly inventory on a year-over-year basis. Yet we are still far from the unhealthy levels of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
We’ve gone from 33% year-over-year inventory growth at the 2025 high to 6.35% last week. In the past, inventory growth has picked up at higher rates, reducing demand and increasing the number of new listings year over year. New listings data is still negative year over year, but for this week it’s a good start to the spring seasonal increase.
- Weekly Inventory Change: (March 13 – March 20): Inventory increased from 697,251 Unpleasant 705,633
- Same week last year: (March 14 – March 21): Stock rose from 655,625 Unpleasant 668,155
New advertising data
New listings data was also somewhat disappointing this year. Although I still believe we can get above 80,000 in a few weeks, year-over-year growth has been slightly negative for weeks.
I’m still hoping that new listing data will be between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during the seasonal peaks, as they were between 2013 and 2019. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new home additions ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here you will find the new advertising data for the past two years:
- 2026: 68,016
- 2025: 69,701
Price reduction percentage
Typically, around a third of homes experience price reductions before they are sold, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventories rise together, the percentage of price reductions increases.
In my 2026 price forecast, I had a negative call of 0.62% for the full year nationally.
However, mortgage rates were lower than I thought at the beginning of the year and FHFA’s announced purchase of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads lower than I expected. I believed we would see that improvement later in the year. So before the conflict broke out, my prediction looked wrong for 2026. If interest rates go up now and stay high for longer, I have a chance that my statement will be more correct. However, the price reduction percentage is currently lower than last year.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
The coming week: Iran, Iran, Iran and Iran
Nothing matters in the coming week except Iran. Last week we broke a key level on the 10-year yield and the entire calendar year is now defined by higher interest rates, higher inflation and no rate cuts. In fact, rate hikes are now back in the discussion for 2026. If this conflict worsens, we can price in more rate hikes for 2026, and no Fed member will talk about rate cuts unless we enter a hardcore recession. For the time being, the conflict in Iran determines what the rest of 2026 will look like for the economy and the housing market.
