What if the story of declining loan officer numbers is just that: a story? If you’ve been in the mortgage industry for a while, you’ve probably heard of a sharp decline in the number of licensed loan officers (LOs). Some speak of a 50% decline in the LO population. Worse, others believe that license renewals have dropped by 60%. These numbers – often presented with pride and anxiety, depending on the voice – suggest that competition is declining dramatically.
But is that the reality? Recently released data from intelligence platform RETR, in addition to my research on the NMLS site, tells a very different story.
Breaking down the numbers
According to viral post on social media Last month, here are the numbers behind the loan officer decline story:
- 2020: 688,327 licensed LOs
- 2024: 93,938 licensed LOs
At first glance, this paints a bleak picture. Digging deeper, however, reveals a classic case of comparing apples and oranges. The 2020 figure reflects this total issued permits – meaning a LO licensed in five states is counted five times. Conversely, the number of 2024 counts unique individualsmeaning LOs are counted based on individual status, rather than the number of licenses they hold in multiple states.
According to NMLS data, this is the real story behind the LO numbers over the years (see Figure 1 below):
- 2019: 165,116 licensed loan officers
- 2022: Peak of 233,938 LOs (up 29% from 2019)
- 2024 Q3: 192,793 LOs (down 18% from 2022 peak)
While there is undoubtedly a decline, it is not as overwhelming as the numbers floating around the internet. Moreover, RETR’s data is over Producing LOs – those who actually took out one or two loans – shows a similar trend: a modest decline of 10%, not the 50% plus that some suggest. That’s a completely different story – and one that’s a little less apocalyptic.
The competitive landscape tells the bigger story
The bigger story lies in the competitive dynamics. While the number of LOs has declined, the average volume per LO has declined significantly since the market peak in 2020. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and RETR (see Table 1 below):
- In 2020, the average volume per LO was $15.65 million.
- By 2023, that number had dropped to $6.99 million – a strong reflection of declining market volume and increased competition.
What’s the good news? Forecasts for 2025 indicate an increase in the average volume per LO of 40%. This will be caused by the increasing production volume and a slight continued decline in the production of LOs.
A personal reflection to think about
For me, these insights were a wake-up call. I had allowed the “LO decline” narrative to justify complacency. However, the data tells me otherwise. Competition is fierce, but there are plenty of opportunities for those who adapt and stay proactive in the market. Whether you believe you can or not, you are right.
The numbers don’t lie. But they also don’t tell the whole story. Let this be a reminder: the future belongs to those who don’t just focus on surviving, but to those who are constantly focused on innovating and growing.
See you at the top.
Michael McAllister
Founder/Chairman of Empower LO
[email protected]
