Additionally, MBA’s updated forecasts predict slightly lower home sales in 2025, with existing home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million, versus October’s forecast of 4.3 million. The change in the projection for new home sales in the updated forecast is negligible.
HousingWires The housing market forecast for 2025 assumes 4.2 million existing home sales, just like that of Goldman Sachs. Of the forecasts that HousingWire analyzed, the National Association of Real Estate Agents has the highest forecast at 4.9 million.
MBA is not the only forecast that is lowering home sales. Fannie Mae has lowered its expectations for home sales growth in 2025 from 11% to 4%.
After a summer in which both 15- and 30-year conforming mortgage rates were around 7%, mortgage rates fell significantly and bottomed out in early October. The 15-year compliance rate dropped to mid-5% and the 30-year compliance rate fell below 6.5%.
However, interest rates rose dramatically in October and both the 30- and 15-year rates are around 7%.
The Federal Reserve He was expected to make several rate cuts in the coming months, but Trump’s election is clouding that outlook because of his rate proposals. At various points in the 2024 campaign, Trump proposed a 10% across-the-board tariff on foreign goods, a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, and a 100% tariff on Mexican goods.
Economists widely believe that rates of this magnitude would reignite inflation and force the Fed to suspend interest rate cuts, or even prompt them to increase them.
