10-year revenue and mortgage interest
In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:
- The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%
De Wilde Week started last Sunday evening then FHFA Chairman Bill Pulte encouraged Powell to lower the rates, and stated that “enough is enough.” Then Trump announced that he wants to take the GSE audience with an implicit guarantee. Later in the week, President Trump shared my article on the day he met Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, with an emphasis on the urgent need for a rate reduction for the FED chairman.
But that is not all – Trump was confronted with a setback in court with regard to his Godzilla rates, only to bounce back and to issue a stunning 50% rate on Staal Laat on Friday evening. What a whirlwind of developments! To finish it, we had released Tame PCE-Inflation data on Friday, the market yewed on it and the 10-year return closed the week around 4.40%, while the mortgage interest rate became slightly lower.
There is more news to unpack, so tune in to the Daily Podcast of Housingwire on Monday.
Mortgage spreads
The mortgage spreads have been raised since 2022, but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads because the markets had treated the rates, but the things have improved as the market has calmed down. It has been essential to see spreads better on days when the return of 10 years goes up, because that limits the damage of a higher return of 10 years.
If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.67% higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest rate would be 0.83% to 0.63 %% lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads usually varied between 1.60% and 1.80%.
Application -Buy data
Last week the purchase data of the purchase of the year after year increased by 18%, an increase of 3% compared to the previous week. The most undiminist economic data from 2025 are probably due to confusion; I recently discussed this data line in this podcast. We have a 17 -week winning series for positive growth on an annual basis and four consecutive weeks of double digits of growth during the top season of May. Traditionally, after May, volumes tend to fall.
Here are the weekly data for 2025:
- 10 Positive Lectures
- 7 Negative measurements
- 3 PLAT PRINTS
- 17 consecutive weeks of positive data on an annual basis
Total current turnover
The last weekly information about total pending sale of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Mortgage interest is usually almost 6% required to promote real growth in the housing market. Although the total pending the sale of living is slightly higher than last year, it is surprising to see that these data remain stable despite increased speeds in 2025. We are clearly at the seasonal peak period for this data line in terms of volumes and will soon see the seasonal decrease.
Weekly pending the sale of the past week in recent years:
- 2025: 413.771
- 2024: 406,136
Weekly pending sales
As I noticed last week, I added weekly pending sales data to this tracker. Although this data offers information from week to week information, it can be influenced by the volatility of the calendar year and any events that can occur. Due to the Memorial Day weekend, this data line was hit, so that we have a better idea of the performance in two weeks.
Weekly pending sales for last week in recent years:
- 2025: 72,312
- 2024: 62.919
Weekly inventory data
The most exciting development on the housing market for 2024 and 2025 is the increase in the inventory. Inventaris must return to the pre-Pandemic levels for the housing market to work more effectively. The seasonal increase in the inventory is desperately needed, because the country works back to normal. Again, once we are levels in 2019, all low stock discussions will disappear. For our data lines we have reached the bottom of the 2019 inventory.
- Weekly stock change (May 23, May 30): Inventory Rose van 787,049 Unpleasant 803.519
- The same week last year (May 24, May 31): Inventory came from 594,584 Unpleasant 604,922
New frame data
As the inventory has grown, we finally came from the two -year drought of new listing data, and we are back more than 80,000 a week during the seasonal peak months. I predicted this last year, but it didn’t happen. I have retained that prediction for 2025 and we are here today with the second print of more than 80,000. This data line is, as always, influenced by holiday weekends; We should see an increase next week.
To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years.
- 2025: 70.421
- 2024: 63,463
Price percentage
In a typical year, about a third of the house price reductions experience, which emphasizes the dynamic nature of the housing market. Many homeowners adjust their selling prices as stock levels rise and the mortgage interest rate remains increased.
For my price forecast of 2025 I expect a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will again see a negative real house price forecast. In 2024, my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate, especially because the mortgage interest rate fell to 6% and the demand improved in the second half of 2024. As a result, house prices continued to rise by 4% in 2024.
The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forces for 2025.
The coming week: Jobs Week!
As we approach the job week, it is an important time for economic indicators. Last week we received a rather subdued PCE inflation report with headline PCE registered at 2.1%, which did not seem to do many reactions of the bond market. However, the labor data remains a crucial focus for both the Federal Reserve and Bond market participants.
Fed President Waller will speak on Monday and we have some PMI data to consider. Although the mortgage market remained calm last week, there can be some volatility in the coming week.
