Highlights
We see stark contrasts in the Justice Department’s record increases and decreases in crime in two years. It is becoming increasingly difficult to accurately analyze crime in the US.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former senior crime prevention and statistics specialist at the Ministry of Justice Clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former adjunct associate professor of criminology and public affairs at the University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the national media campaign “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime.” Successful media campaigns against crime produced by the state.
Thirty-five years leading award-winning (50+) public relations for state and national criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often focusing on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcast series. Produced a unique and emulated style of proactive government public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study – Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Media Success: Everything You Need to Survive Reporters and Your Organization‘ available from Amazon and other booksellers.
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Article
The U.S. Department of Justice has seen record increases and decreases in crime and violence in two years.
The FBI has been released premature crime statistics for the first quarter of 2024 and reported Crime (the vast majority of crime goes unreported) decreased.
Graphic (click to enlarge)
All categories of crime decreased significantly in the first quarter of 2024.
The latest FBI statistics indicate a “historic” drop in crime in the first quarter of this year. Attorney General Merrick Garland say.
And this after a year in which the number of murders fell at one of the fastest rates ever recorded, a top criminologist added.
“This should be good news for everyone,” said criminologist Jeff Asher analyzed the FBI numbers, told NBC News. “But it is also early June and the trend of crime rates in the country is always uncertain.”
The number of violent and property crimes fell dramatically in the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to quarterly statistics released Monday by the FBI, known as the Uniform Crime Report.
Murders decreased by 26.4%, reported rapes decreased by 25.7%, robberies decreased by 17.8%, aggravated assault decreased by 12.5%, and total violent crimes decreased by 15.2% , as the statistics show.
Reported property crimes also fell by 15.1%, according to the UCR report, which the FBI compiles from crime statistics provided to the agency by law enforcement agencies across the US.
Context
According to Gallup, fear or concern about crime is at record levels.
The U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics recorded a historic 44 percent based on the National Crime Victimization Survey increase in violent crime with huge gains in crime for groups in the fall of 2023 for calendar year 2022.
According to the FBI, “this report is based on data received from 13,719 of the nation’s 19,268 law enforcement agencies.” Until we know who isn’t reporting it, the data is suspect. Major law enforcement agencies are still not participating in the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System.
The new National Incident-Based Reporting System records multiple crimes instead of one primary crime under the previous system. Those in the field suggest that NIBRS is causing reluctance to record reported crimes.
Use of FBI Statistics crimes reported to the police and the vast majority are not reported. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, 42 percent of violent crimes are reported. For property crimes this is 32 percent. For example, about 80 percent of what we call crime consists of property events. Thirty-two percent of property crimes reported out of 80 percent indicate the difficulty of using FBI data.
Law enforcement agencies often report the majority of their crime events in December in one data dump for the year, meaning that crime events in the first quarter are highly suspicious.
Premature Full-year crime data from the FBI in 2023 showed a 3 percent decline in violence in metropolitan areas (where most Americans live), so the data above is astonishing.
Vehicle theft has consistently increased by record amounts in recent years. So it suddenly dropped 17 percent? That approaches the impossible.
Based on previous articles on crime, police readers will insist that they do not record crimes or make arrests due to pressure from political leaders, or that it is seen as a waste of time if offenders (especially young people) are not charged. Victimization among youth reached record highs, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics in a recent report based on 2022 data.
All of the data mentioned above is available in the US violence and property crime figures on this website.
On this website you will find 25 examples of increasing crime in recent years.
Conclusions
So we have huge contrasts in the record increases and decreases in crime in two years. This has happened before in Gallup’s review of crime statistics based on their polling methods.
The National Crime Victimization Survey is considered a much more accurate compilation of crime because the vast majority of crime goes unreported. For example, the last ‘official’ annual report from the US Department of Justice registered record figures is increasing in violent crimes. Everything from the FBI for 2023 and 2024 is tentative.
For example, the FBI records approximately 11,000 hate crimes according to their latest official report. The National Crime Victimization Survey records approximately 250,000 hate crimes per year. What report would you use to analyze hate crimes?
However, the FBI data for the first quarter of 2024, although preliminary, indicates a record decline in violent and property crimes. Whether this also applies to the coming quarters remains to be seen.
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