Quotes
“An educated person is one who has learned that information almost always turns out to be incomplete at best and very often false, misleading, fictitious, mendacious – just plain wrong.”
‘I will never lie. I will never make a misleading statement. I will never betray the trust any of you had in me. And I will never shy away from a controversial topic.”
Background
Data on crime and fear of crime cited in this article is available in Violent and Property Crime Rates In The US
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former senior crime prevention and statistics specialist at the Ministry of Justice Clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council.
Former adjunct associate professor of criminology and public affairs at the University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the national media campaign “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime.” Successful media campaigns against crime produced by the state.
Thirty-five years leading award-winning (50+) public relations for state and national criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often focusing on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcast series. Produced a unique and emulated style of proactive government public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study – Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Media Success: Everything You Need to Survive Reporters and Your Organization‘ available from Amazon and other booksellers.
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Opinion
The U.S. Department of Justice has released 2022 and 2023 data documenting the fact that America recorded the largest increase (approximately 44 percent) in violent crime in our nation’s history through the National Crime Victimization Survey.
The vast majority of the media and those who write about crime ignored or downplayed this crime.
When I analyzed this data through articles, the pushback via social media was enormous. I was banned from multiple Reddit groups and mentioned every name in the book by people who embraced the numbers offered by the FBI.
The number of crimes reported to police, as compiled by the FBI, has indeed fallen, and in the case of homicides, they have dropped significantly.
The problem is that an overwhelming number or percentage of crimes are never reported to the police. There are so many additional factors that contribute to it reported crimes so dodgy that it would take a separate article to capture them all.
No, the National Crime Victimization Survey is not without flaws “but” it records all crimes except murders (you can’t interview dead people). It has a 50-year history that is embraced by many as a much better method for counting criminal activity.
Trump cited data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. Others stuck to FBI numbers.
Fear of crime
Gallup recorded a record fear of crime in America. The US and Canada are the only parts of the world (outside of sub-Saharan Africa) where a reduction in perceived safety is recorded.
Yet endless national publications ridiculed those who raised concerns about crime as foolish or irrational based on FBI data.
Yet Trump expressed concern about the fear of crime, while Democrats did not.
Progressive ideology
California voters Proposition 36 passed overwhelmingly on Tuesday, capping a chaotic 10 months of negotiations and bickering at the Capitol, where Democratic leaders tried in vain to preserve a decade of criminal justice reform.
Instead, the campaign to increase penalties for theft and repeat drug possession convictions appears to have won.
Proposal 36opposed by Gov. Gavin Newsomreclassifies some misdemeanor thefts and drug crimes as felonies.
The measure also creates a new category of crime – a “treatment prescribed offense.” People who plead no contest to charges after multiple drug possession convictions could complete drug treatment instead of going to prison, but if they don’t complete treatment they still face a three-year prison sentence.
Progressive prosecutors
According to early media accounts, progressive prosecutors lose most (if not all) elections across the country.
Conclusions
I am not suggesting that Donald Trump is correct in all his views on crime, and Vice President Harris has raised many concerns about crime and justice that deserve attention.
But ultimately, on the crime issue, black and Latino voters, along with many others, understood that they were being misled, and that made them sympathetic to Trump and his justice issues.
You simply cannot invalidate the feelings of American voters and win. One side embraced those feelings. The Democrats didn’t do that.
There were endless references to Joe Biden’s campaign being extremely frustrated by progressives trying to push him in directions he didn’t want to go. James Carville warned Democrats that the party could not ignore voters’ perceptions of crime.
Violence was a legitimate concern. The public’s perception of crime was equally important.
Yet the vast majority of mainstream media and advocates refused to embrace the data. I guess any support for rising crime and fear supported Trump’s claims, and that they would rather eat feces than see Trump get elected.
So now we have Trump as president-elect. We now have a Republican Senate and, in all likelihood, a Republican Congress.
It’s what happens when data and concerns are ignored. Great job mainstream media and advocacy groups. You just gave the Republicans complete control of the executive and legislative branches.
Essentially, you weren’t honest and you paid the price.
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See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most dangerous cities/states/countries in the most dangerous cities.
US crime rates versus national crime rates.
National recidivism rates of offenders for recidivism of offenders.
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