- Toncoin withdrew to $ 2.45, tapped an important question zone for the last time in March 2024, before he organized an aggressive recovery.
- Level of $ 4 has proven to be a crucial resistance, which causes several rejections.
Toncoin’s [TON] 19.54% Monthly Rally has positioned it as the best performing High-Cap Activum. However, the short deviation above the $ 4 level was confronted with rapid rejection, which indicates potential local exhaustion.
On the other hand, the market structure suggests a sentiment shift, in which investors switch from fear to denial.
In market psychology, denial is a phase in which participants reject early signs of trend exhausting, instead anticipating continuation.
Can Toncoin prevent a mass capitulation in mind and activate a stock squeeze, or is the current rally set for distribution?
Ton’s current market position – Fight against $ 4 resistance
On his 1D price diagram, Toncoin withdrew to $ 2.45, an important liquidity zone that was last tested in March 2024. The subsequent recovery was impulsive, but the $ 4 recovery turned out to be a strong resistance.
In the last attempt by the Breakout Bierten Ton short $ 4, only to face the absorption of Swift Sell-Side, indicative of a liquidity grip.
This rejection, despite the absence of clear overload signals, reinforces the local distribution dynamics.
Consequently, shorts have capitalized, activated by forced liquidations From $ 340 million in open positions. The resulting Deleveraaging event has contributed to the withdrawal, so that Ton reduced to $ 3.80 at the time of writing.
Source: TradingView (Ton/USDT)
Now Ton is organizing another push to $ 4. The supply zone of $ 3.93, however, remains an important bending point, where 5.18 million addresses jointly have 795.50 million Toncoin.
A rejection at this level could catalyze a step -by -step sales pressure, which means that 3.12 billion tonnes run the risk of distribution.
Source: Intotheblock
The failure to maintain Bullish Momentum can even cause a short squeeze, so that consolidation expands within a liquidity trap.
Yet there is a silver lining. The Market sentiment shifts to the denial phase. The big question is: will Ton-investors show conviction in an outbreak, or is a deeper Hercumulation phase inevitable?
Assessment of the next move by Toncoin: HODL or Capitulate?
Whales currently control 66.77% of Toncoin’s total range, making their actions an important market signal. In the past week, the vertebral network inflow rose by 2159.82%, a clear indication of significant accumulation.
In fact, this accumulation closes from Toncoin’s outbreak of his $ 3.35 consolidation range, which suggests that an increased interest on the buy-side.
The sharp increase in whale activity suggests that large holders position for a continuation of the bullish trend, which makes signs of trend removal possible.
Source: Intotheblock
If this pattern applies, even after a retest of $ 3.93, a movement beyond the $ 4 resistance zone seems increasingly likely, especially with an increase of 7.70% in open interest (OI) in the derivatives market.
However, not maintaining support at $ 3.93 can train in Cascade liquidations, which endangers the current open positions.
To confirm a movement above $ 4, the capitulation must be absorbed. Although the prevailing signals are bullish, these critical levels will be crucial in the short term.
Credit : ambcrypto.com
