Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action could mirror that of the Nasdaq exchange-traded fund (ETF) Invesco QQQ during the first 13 months after its launch about 26 years ago.
In a new video, Cowen tells According to its 855,000 YouTube subscribers, the QQQ ETF has hit a local top after rising 150% in about a year since the ETF launched.
The QQQ ETF tracks the performance of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
As the flagship digital asset nears its first anniversary since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, Cowen says the crypto king could replicate a similar price action, although it’s unlikely it will “play out in exactly the same way.”
“In 1999, the QQQ ETF launched in March and rose from about $48 to $120. And that rally from $48 to $120 lasted about 54 weeks – $48 to $120…
…if you look at the Bitcoin ETF, it launched at around $48,000…if you look at the launch of the spot ETF for Bitcoin, it went up to $48,000 instead of down like the QQQ [ETF]. But interestingly enough, 54 weeks later it is January 20 – Inauguration Day [of President-elect Donald Trump]which is interesting because 54 weeks after this launch of the QQQ it was 54 weeks later that the QQQ went from about $48 to $120.
Take a look at this, if you go to Bitcoin on the daily time frame and connect these highs here [$99,600, $104,100 and $108,200] and you just expand on that. The fascinating thing is that if you take some kind of price tag and go to January 20th and go to this trend line, you get to $120,000, which is exactly what the QQQ did – it went from $48 to $120, 54 weeks later.
Cowen says that if Bitcoin’s price action closely matches that of the QQQ ETF in its first 13 months of existence, a 48% drop is possible.
“This is obviously very questionable and we obviously know that QQQ took a big drop after that…
…what I would be interested in is if Bitcoin gets to $120,000 sometime in the next few weeks, what is the reaction to that? And one possible outcome… what actually happened with the QQQ is that after it hit $120, it had a big drop to $63, which is a pretty big drop.”
Bitcoin is trading at $101,484 at the time of writing.
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