10-year revenue and mortgage interest
My prediction of 2025 includes:
- A reach for mortgage interest between 7.25%-5.75%
- A range for the return of 10 years between 4.70%-3.80%
For all the smoke and jazz that took place last week, the mortgage interest rate was actually very boring. We did get some movement in the 10-year yield in the night of inauguration, but given all the headlines, the mortgage interest rates did not move much up or down last week. For me, the labor market is the most important for rates, and the unemployed claims data checked a bit last week, but between cold weather and the La Wildfires the market also roughly ignored that. I have tackled Trump’s question for lower mortgages This podcast.
To reduce mortgage interest, President Trump can play the role of a basketball coach who works the referee (Federal Reserve Chairman Powell) to get a call to go his way, but the nominated Scott Bessent from Treasury would have more influence. However, if President Trump continues to print the FED and the labor data becomes softer, this can put the FED pressure to act faster.
Mortgage spreads
To make this simple, if the mortgage spreads would not improve compared to the worst levels of the spreads we saw in 2023, we would probably already lose construction workers and the sale of houses did not have the recent bounce in the sale of record low levels had.
The American housing market would have been much worse without better spreads in 2024 and now go to 2025. If we were to apply the worst spread levels from 2023 to today’s rates, we would see an increase of an extra 0.79% in the mortgage interest – 8% in the neighborhood. On the other hand, if the mortgage spreads were at their typical level, we would expect that the mortgage interest rate is approximately 0.74 to 0.84% lower than they are now, which means that mortgage interest is almost 6%.
Some people have asked me if President Trump has the authority to order someone to buy mortgage -covered effects to improve the spreads, which can then help the sale with mortgage interest rate grow by almost 6%. My answer is no. However, we have to look at the treasury, especially if berrum suggests that the companies sponsored by the government (GSEs), which are still under conservatory, can use part of their income to buy MBS. This scenario is more likely than President Trump to request financing of the congress to reduce mortgage interest.
For my 2025 prediction I expected an improvement in the spreads of on average between 0.27%-0.41%, compared to the average of 2.54%in 2024. We are almost achieving that average spread range, and the goal is to improve and maintain better spreads when they retain better spreads when yields fall.
Application -Buy data
Application data had a slightly positive week, plus 1% week to week, and is plus 2% year after year. So we have a winning series of two weeks here.
Last year this data line was very pessimistic when we had a mortgage interest rate between 6.75%-7.50%, with 14 negative weeks, two positive and two flat prints week to week.
I am sure that President Trump would like lower rates, so that he does not have to worry that construction workers lose their jobs in his presidency, something that I have identified as a wildcard before 2025 started.
Weekly pending sales
The last weekly current contract details of Altos Research Offers critical insights into real -time trends in the demand for homes. The existing home sales reported the estimate on Friday, but our weekly data has recently become softer. I expect that this softness will appear in the hanging house sales data of Nonsense Since soon the low bar has been canceled on sale. We are still higher than 2023 levels; If the mortgage interest can simply go to 6%, we have a growth in turnover.
Weekly current contracts for the past week in recent years:
- 2025: 266,015
- 2024: 275,559
- 2023: 241,975
Weekly inventory data
When we start with 2025, we keep a close eye on the performance of stock data. In the past decade we usually observe the lowest stock levels in February, as we did last year. In the years after Covid-19, however, the seasonal layer began to shift to March and April, which ensures.
This is a data line that I know for sure that President Trump likes to see, because one of his promises is more housing supply to the market, and with housing permits at recession levels, the fastest way to get inventory from the existing home sale must be available market.
Until now, the inventory data looks promising while we are working back to the 2019 inventory levels, which were the lowest in five decades before the impact of COVID-19.
- Weekly inventory change (January 17, Jan. 24): Inventory Rose van 632,118 Unpleasant 636.580
- The same week last year (January 19 -26 January): The inventory fell from 506,373 Unpleasant 503,192
- The soil of all time was in 2022 240,497
- The stock peak before 2024 was 739,434
- For some context were active lists for the same week in 2015 938,452
New frame data
Our new listing data reflects houses that come on the market without an immediate contract, which gives us a real -time picture of every sales pressure in the market. In the past five years we have seen the lowest activity levels in history.
Last year I expected that we would achieve at least 80,000 new entries during the seasonal peak weeks, but that did not happen; I was finished with about 5,000. From 2013 to 2019, the seasonal peak weeks registered between 80,000 and 110,000 offers. Unfortunately, the lowest levels ever have registered in the last two years.
During the years of the bubble crash of the home, this data line varied between 250,000 and 400,000 a week. However, we had stressed credit vendors at the time, which is not the case now. New lists last week in recent years:
- 2025: 50,955
- 2024: 44,921
- 2023: 42,843
Price percentage
In an average year it is usual for about a third of all houses to see a price reduction, which reflects the usual dynamics of the housing market. We are in the seasonal fall period for price reductions; We are now lower than in 2023 but higher than in 2024.
Price reduction percentages for last week in recent years:
- 2025: 32.96%
- 2024: 31%
- 2023: 34%
The coming week: Fed Week with tons of economic data
It has a week Fed! After President Trump Comments about interest rates Last week we can expect interesting questions and answers after the FED announcement this week. This week we also have a lot of economic data to look forward to, including new home sales, house prices, PCE inflation and some bond auctions. As always, unemployed claims are released on Thursday. In particular, we saw an increase in claims last week.
Also keep an eye on this week awaiting sales data for home; Upcoming reports will display the softness that is reflected in our weekly current contract data.
