Highlights
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Criminal offenders gravitate to people, places, and things perceived as easier targets with successful or bigger payoffs. The disabled have much higher rates of violence.
If crimes reported to law enforcement (most aren’t) are down per the FBI, is there less victimization, or are crime patterns shifting?
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
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A comprehensive overview of crime for recent years is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S
Note
The examples below mostly use two national crime indexes, the National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) and crimes reported to the police as compiled by the FBI. Both are US Department of Justice agencies.
Crime rates and totals can fluctuate from year to year.
Article
USA Today offered: Stick-up at the cellphone store: USA’s new heists go after iPhones and not bank vaults.
“He leads the employee to a safe in the back and orders him to open it. But it’s not stacks of cash he’s after. Today’s stickup artist is after something else: smartphones.”
“The trio cleans out the safe and leaves the store in Owings Mills, Maryland, with a grand total of $48,767 worth of Apple and Samsung Galaxy devices— 76 in total, according to federal court filings. They also take $322 from the store register.”
“It’s the final heist in a spree that’s seen the robbers take roughly $120,000 worth of stolen phones across four stores around Baltimore, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office. The case out of Maryland is the latest in what criminology experts and law enforcement see as the modern-day form of bank robbery— with significantly higher takes. In the United States, bank robbers net just over $4,000 per robbery, according to FBI statistics.”
“If noted gangster John Dillinger were alive today, he’d be robbing cellphone stores instead of banks.”
75 Million Yearly Crime Victims-Are Crime Patterns Changing?
There are approximately 75 million yearly crime victims. Criminal offenders will always go after the easiest targets with a high probability of success. Repeat victimizations (see below) need to be considered.
We know that the overwhelming majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement; they don’t show up in FBI statistics.
According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ latest national crime data, we are at record highs for rates of violent crime. Per BJS, property crime is increasing. Just note that according to the FBI (crimes reported to the police), crime is declining. So any analysis depends on the data you examine.
Regardless of the index you use, crime is of immense concern to citizens. Firearm-related death Is more acute for Black and Latino Men than deployed U.S. soldiers. Fear of crime is at an all-time high per Gallup. Crime was cited in numerous polls as a reason for voter preferences during the presidential election. A new poll from the Houston Chronicle documents national concerns about crime.
Most violent crime is interpersonal with victims and offenders knowing each other which complicates any analysis but it could also exacerbate vulnerability. Even burglaries (when the offender is known) have connections to people we know per BJS.
The point is that there are millions of people victimized by crime yearly and victimization will ebb and flow as conditions and opportunities change. There are criminogenic variables that are constant such as low-income areas or younger populations. It’s generally the same with urban areas with exceptions.
What isn’t consistent are the changing patterns of both violent and property crime.
Criminal offenders have always weighed risk with reward which means that crime patterns are always shifting. Examples are below.
Shifting Crime–Per FBI-Cybercrimes Almost Double-37 Billion In Losses Since 2019
There have been 37 billion dollars in cybercrime losses since 2019. These crimes cost Americans far more financially and emotionally than street crimes or burglaries-larcenies per the FBI.
Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ, 23 million persons were victims of identity theft during the prior 12 months in 2023 costing 15.1 billion dollars. This is numerically (and financially) far more than the 4 million victims (and 14 billion in losses) from 2019 to 2023 identified by the FBI for overall cybercrimes. The 23 million crime identity theft victims are also far more than the 14 million general crime victims identified by the FBI in 2022.
It doesn’t take a lot of knowledge to shift from street victimization to identity theft. No one expects street criminals to learn coding and go onto the dark web. However, buying a burner phone and making calls to the vulnerable (many times older Americans) can be done by anyone.
If crimes reported to law enforcement are down per the FBI, is there less victimization, or are patterns shifting? Yes, many identity theft offenders are offshore so comparisons can be tricky.
Shifting Crime Patterns-Kia Boys-Vehicle Theft Explodes
Vehicle theft rates were astoundingly high for years until recently. Thefts were also exasperated by keyless ignitions and devices to mimic them bought on the dark web.
Shifting Crime Patterns-Race
For decades, NCVS data showed that Black individuals were more likely than White individuals to be victims of violent crime, including homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault. This was often attributed to socioeconomic factors, higher crime rates in certain urban areas, and systemic issues like policing disparities.
NCVS data from the 2020s suggests that the racial gap in overall violent victimization has narrowed. In some years, White victimization rates have approached or even surpassed Black victimization rates for certain types of crime, though disparities remain in homicide and gun violence.
Shifting Crime Patterns-Females
Admittedly, some of the groups I mention will cause pushback and yes, the growing number of female victims fall into that category when discussing vulnerability. I served as a police officer with female cops and they were as tough as nails but the data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics state that, at one time, females were victimized far less than males. That’s not the case any longer.
This marked a significant shift, as males historically experienced higher rates of violent crime. The Bureau of Justice Statistics noted it in their 2015 yearly report.
Shifting Crime Patterns-Older Americans
Older people have the lowest rate of violent victimization principally because they are less likely to go to places with higher instances of violence.
Shifting Crime Patterns-The Disabled
Shifting Crime Patterns-Lesbian-Gay-Transgender Persons
Shifting Crime Patterns-The Homeless Are Far More Likely To Commit Crimes And To Be Victims
Those experiencing homelessness have been involved with crime “at dramatically higher rates than the rest of the population,” whether as victims or offenders. Per NIH: The rate of violent crimes was 40 times higher and the rate of nonviolent crimes 27 times higher in the homeless population. The homeless population in the United States has experienced significant increases in recent years. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development‘s (HUD) 2024 Annual Homeless Assessment Report (AHAR), approximately 770,000 people experienced homelessness between 2023 and 2024, marking an 18% increase from the previous year.
Shifting Crime Patterns-DOJ Report On Repeat Victimization
Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, about 1 in 5 crime victims (19 percent) experienced repeat victimization, defined as two or more violent victimizations during the year. Repeat victims accounted for a disproportionate percentage of all violent victimizations that occurred each year, Bureau Of Justice Statistics.
Based on the data above, it seems obvious that once victimized, offenders see you as vulnerable to reoffending.
Conclusions
There is an array of groups known for their vulnerability to criminal victimization. Indicators suggest that group victimization has increased over time for several categories.
But people’s actions will always be the key factor in criminal victimization. The elderly have the lowest rate of violent victimization but if the elderly person becomes divorced, moves to an apartment, and frequents bars in a low or moderate-income area, his risk for victimization increases substantially, all based on federal crime data.
You could have a young female living in a low to moderate-income area who is mixed race who is going to college and forgoes areas where younger people congregate because she spends her spare time studying, her chances for victimization will be substantially less than the senior citizen going into a bar.
Mixed-race people could have high rates of violent crime. However, it’s important to note that the category labeled “another race” by the Bureau of Justice Statistics in their annual reports includes both individuals identifying as American Indian or Alaska Native and those of two or more races. Due to the aggregation of these groups, the data does not allow for a precise determination of violent victimization rates specifically for mixed-race individuals.
Note
I used Chat GPT for research and context. I verified all sources. I relied principally on federal data for this article. Sources are included.
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