As the US presidential election approaches, Bitcoin price has found a stable support range between $68,000 and $69,000, just below its all-time high earlier this year.
While the cryptocurrency has struggled to surpass this major milestone, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations for further price increases tempered by expected market gains. inconstancy in the coming hours.
Bitcoin price is expected to rise 8% after the election
The options market indicates Bitcoin price could see price swings of around 8% in either direction after the election, a notable increase compared to the typical 2% swings on regular trading days.
Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a liquidity provider for crypto derivatives, noted that “no significant volatility premium is priced in after November 7,” suggesting the market is anticipating a relatively quick resolution to the election results.
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The election focuses on the Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, with both candidates eliciting varying responses from the crypto community.
Trump’s favorable attitude toward cryptocurrencies has positioned Bitcoin as part of the so-called “Trump trades,” especially in light of the crackdown under President Joe Biden.
As Trump’s odds fluctuated in the betting markets, the Bitcoin price reflected these changes and briefly approached record highs before retreating as polls indicate a closely contested race.
The options market reflects a balanced sentiment, with an even distribution of stock prices bearish and bullish positions throughout October, indicating that traders are preparing for upward and downward moves as the election approaches.
Data from the Deribit exchange indicates a potential trading range of $60,000 to $80,000 for the Bitcoin price in the weeks following the election, based on the spike in open interest in options contracts.
The path to $100,000 remains feasible
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has done just that shared his view on social media, stating that a Trump victory could lead to an immediate Bitcoin price increase, potentially setting a new all-time high this year.
Conversely, the analyst suggests that a win for Harris could result in a price drop, delaying it new highlights until the first quarter of 2025. Regardless of the election outcome, Deutscher remains confident that Bitcoin will reach $100,000.
Market expert Patric H. adds another layer of analysis, noting that Bitcoin closed above a daily downtrend channel last week, indicating a possible reversal.
However, Patrick notes that the weekly candle shows weakness, prompting market participants to de-risk ahead of the election. His bullish thesis hinges on Bitcoin being worth over $65,000; a decline below this level could signal a return to long-term price volatility.
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From a trading perspective, data indicates that perpetual traders on Binance have withdrawn limit buy orders below $50,000, indicating a shift in sentiment.
Previously, there was substantial long-term interest in the “multi-billion dollar range” between $42,000 and $50,000, but traders appear to have set aside that capital in favor of higher price levels. The next important limit buy order is $63,800, with even more smaller orders spread to that level, indicating that Bitcoin may not fall significantly below this point.
On the upside, the next significant resistance level for the Bitcoin price is $73,000, seeing significant selling interest from Coinbase and Binance. Patrick expects a possible rejection in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, which could precede a breakout if these levels are successfully breached.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,360, up 0.8% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Credit : www.newsbtc.com
