Why Arthur Hayes Says He Won’t Buy Bitcoin Now, Even if It Falls Below $60K

Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, recently explained why he is avoiding Bitcoin for now, despite being optimistic about its long-term future.

Speaking about the CoinStories podcastHayes said that even if he only had $1 to invest today, he would still prefer to wait before buying Bitcoin.

This is what drives him to stay away from Bitcoin right now.

Hayes: “I would wait”

In a recent interview on Coin StoriesHayes said that if he only had $1 to invest today, he wouldn’t buy Bitcoin. Instead, he plans to wait for clearer signals from global monetary policy.

He stated,

“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I put it into Bitcoin?

No. I would wait.’

Hayes analyzes the current scenario and believes that rising geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, could ultimately force the Federal Reserve and other central banks to inject more liquidity into the financial system to support government spending.

Simply put, this will be the real buying opportunity when the Federal Reserve and other central banks start printing money again, as increased liquidity has historically driven major Bitcoin rallies. Until then, he advises investors to remain patient rather than trying to guess the bottom of the market.

Why Bitcoin Could Fall Below $60,000

Hayes also warned that geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic stress could lead to broad sell-offs in both stock and crypto markets. In such risk scenarios, Bitcoin could briefly fall below the $60,000 level as investors move towards safer assets.

Because of these uncertainties, Hayes believes that waiting for clearer signs of liquidity expansion could be a smarter strategy than rushing into the market.

The analyst also believes that Bitcoin behaves like a “liquidity alarm,” meaning its price responds strongly to the amount of money circulating in the financial system. When liquidity tightens, crypto markets often struggle.

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At the same time, Hayes pointed out that the rise in gold prices points to declining confidence in dollar-based assets. According to him, many central banks are increasing their gold reserves to hedge against potential weakness in the US dollar and protect national reserves.

Long-Term Outlook: $100,000 Bitcoin?

Despite the cautious short-term policy, Hayes remains extremely optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. He believes that if global fiat liquidity increases significantly, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 within the next few years.

However, he also warned traders against unrealistic expectations, noting that “the market’s job is not to make you money, but to take your money.”

For Hayes, patience and macro awareness remain crucial as the next phase of the crypto cycle unfolds.

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