This article is available in Spanish.
Crypto analyst Egrag has a historical fact analysis of the weekly XRP price chart, indicating the cryptocurrency is entering “uncharted territory.” Using historical data and focusing on critical technical indicators.
Egrag highlights significant shifts in XRP trading behavior and highlights the exhaustion the XRP community is feeling during this prolonged cycle. “This cycle has been extremely tiring and super manipulative, especially when it comes to XRP. But don’t lose hope!” he says.
Why XRP is in uncharted territory
Central to Egrag’s analysis are two key indicators, plotted on a weekly scale: the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 55-week Simple Moving Average (MA). Both indicators are known for their responsiveness to price changes and have historically been indicative of shifts in market momentum for XRP. The interactions between these moving averages, especially when they cross, are crucial in predicting potential bullish or bearish trends.
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Egrag identifies three types of crosses in his analysis, each signaling a different market sentiment. A bearish cross, marked by a red circle on its chart, occurs when the 21-week EMA crosses below the 55-week MA, indicating possible downside momentum. A bullish cross, indicated by a green circle, occurs when the 21-week EMA crosses the 55-week MA, indicating possible upward movement. An indecisive cross, represented by an orange circle, marks periods when the moving averages converge but do not cross decisively, reflecting uncertainty or possible market manipulation.
In Cycle A, XRP experienced a bearish cross, followed by two bullish crosses, with significant implications for the price trajectory. The period between the bearish cross and the first bullish cross lasted approximately 616 days, during which market sentiment gradually changed. Midway through this cycle, there was another bearish cross about 140 days after the first bullish cross, preceding the second bullish cross that occurred 49 days later. This second bullish cross led to an explosive price movement. Egrag notes: “We had a bearish cross, followed by two bullish crosses – one mid-cycle and the second was explosive!
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Cycle B presented a different scenario, with one bearish cross followed by one bullish cross. The duration of the bearish to bullish cross was approximately 763 days, indicating a longer period of bearish sentiment before the market turned. During this cycle, XRP narrowly missed an earlier bullish cross due to a significant price dump, which prevented the moving averages from crossing each other as they otherwise would have done. “Mid-cycle, XRP narrowly missed the bullish cross due to a large price dump,” Egrag notes.
Currently, XRP in cycle C is exhibiting behavior that differs from the previous cycles in both duration and complexity. From the first bearish cross to the first bullish cross, the cycle lasted approximately 441 days, longer than in previous cycles. This was followed by a 399-day period that led to a second bearish cross. In total, Cycle C has lasted approximately 987 days from the first bearish cross, making it the longest cycle since XRP’s inception.
Currently, the 21-week EMA and the 55-week MA are converging towards each other, but they have not yet definitively crossed, marked by an orange circle indicating an indecisive cross. Expressing his frustration with this development, Egrag states: “Right now, both indicators (21 EMA and 55 MA) are in the orange circle – right on the edge of a manipulated bullish cross that we narrowly avoided. This is pure manipulation! ”
Egrag’s analysis suggests that Cycle C’s unprecedented duration and deviation from previous patterns puts XRP in “uncharted territory,” indicating that the market may be primed for an outcome not previously seen. “After breaking down all these crosses, my conclusion is that cycle C differs from cycles A and B based on the number of crosses and duration. We are in uncharted territory, so this time we will probably experience something new,” he claims.
However, Eggrag remains optimistic about the future. He foresees the potential beginning of a “utility phase” for XRP, in which the focus shifts from speculative trading to practical applications of the cryptocurrency. “In my optimistic view, I hope this is the moment when the utility phase begins, allowing us to use our XRP instead of selling it!” he decides.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $0.53.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Credit : www.newsbtc.com
