New car sales in Australia will fall by about five percent year-on-year by 2025, leading to greater competition between brands, shorter wait times and the return of more discounts, Toyota Australia chief sales officer Sean Hanley said.
However, the company’s vice president of sales, marketing and franchising also believes Toyota can expand its power as the country’s most popular car brand despite unprecedented challenges, including an influx of new Chinese automakers.
At a press conference in Sydney this morning to announce Toyota’s 28e On top of the new vehicle sales figures, Mr Hanley told reporters that demand would decline in 2025.
After another record year in 2024, when new vehicle sales in Australia totaled 1,237,287, Toyota expects 2025 sales to be between 1.17 and 1.18 million vehicles.
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“The Australian new car market has always been one of the most competitive in the world, and 2025 will be no different,” Mr Hanley said.
“We expect more new brands and models, more choice and stronger competition – which is ultimately great for consumers.
“Right now, we think the market will ease marginally from 2024 records, mainly due to a better balance between supply and demand. We then anticipate a return to a more normal market environment.”
This year marks a host of new challenges for both established and new car brands in Australia, where around 60 car manufacturers already compete and another six are expected to arrive by 2025.
The main headwinds are the Australian government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), increasing cost of living pressures and a federal election in the coming months.
Mr Hanley believes these pressures will increase competition between brands, which will inevitably lead to price cuts.
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Toyota Australia’s best-selling vehicles: RAV4 and HiLux.
“Each brand will certainly determine its own situation,” he said. “With all these new registrations and the need to sell BEVs [electric vehicles] in figures, an interesting dynamic will emerge in the market.
“That said, Toyota will continue to focus on quality sales and providing customers with the best experience.”
Notably, Toyota’s 2024 result of 241,296 vehicles marked 22nd.i.e year in a row, the Japanese brand has led the Australian new vehicle market, with a 19.5 percent market share. The result broke Toyota’s previous record of 238,983 set in 2008.
Despite the fierce competition, Mr Hanley is convinced there is room for further sales growth at Toyota.
“We expect another strong sales year above 220,000 vehicles,” he said.
“I can assure you that our order bank remains strong, so we are optimistic for the future.
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Toyota’s GR sports car range.
“I would like to see Toyota reach a 20 percent market share. We fell a little short in 2024, but we are moving in the right direction. It will be a challenge. It may not be possible in the next 12 months, but over the next five years Toyota will be in a strong position to do this.”
When asked how other brands could find success in the Australian market, Mr Hanley pointed to strong products, dealer networks and customer service.
“Ultimately you have to be able to provide a service. You have to be able to provide trust,” he said.
“Toyota has more than 260 capable, investable dealers nationwide who can service and supply parts. If someone does get into trouble – our cars are not perfect, that can happen – there is a Toyota dealer next to them.
“The one question consumers will have to ask themselves in the future with all these new brands is ‘who will be there for them when they get into trouble?’.”
