Highlights
Most crimes involve reduced charges or dropped or deferred prosecutions.
Concessions through plea-bargains, dropped charges, and limited prison sentences are seen as necessary to keep the justice system functioning.
The hard reality is that if we fully prosecuted all people charged and did not engage in plea bargains, the justice system would shut down in a week.
This article is available as a podcast on YouTube.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
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Article
An NBC News investigation across the nation found that less than 4% of reported rapes, sexual assaults, and child sexual abuse allegations ever result in a sex crime conviction. This statistic is understandably shocking to many but it raises the question, how many criminal cases are actually prosecuted? How many are charged with the most serious crime?
I once interviewed the State’s Attorney for Baltimore for a law school magazine. He bragged that guilty pleas resolved over 90 percent of cases. But he also offered that he gets to that high conviction rate by getting rid of cases with a low probability of convictions.
As someone serving at high levels through my director of media and public relations career in state criminal justice agencies, I was told that the primary mission of any agency isn’t public safety; it’s staying within your budget. This applies to prosecutors and the judiciary.
For prosecutors, that means getting rid of cases with a low probability of conviction “or” offering low-level offenders deferred cases where they pay fines or do community service in return for lack of prosecution or dropped charges. For prosecutors and court administrators, this means that plea-bargained cases are necessary
Criminal Justice Reform?
Prosecutors plea-bargain well over 90 percent of criminal cases where charged burglaries become theft convictions. Charged aggravated assaults (felonies) become simple assaults (misdemeanors). All plea-bargains result in convictions for lower charges which greatly reduces jail or prison time or the length of probation. If lower charges or less accountability were not part of the equation, then why would the defendant agree to the bargain?
If defendants chose trials, the national judicial system would literally ground to a halt in a week.
Advocates for criminal justice reform push for alternatives to incarceration where prosecutors’ offices have been deferring or not prosecuting cases for decades.
Plea-bargains cut prison sentences so dramatically that the average time served by state prisoners released in 2018 was a median time served of 1.3 years per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
The heavy-handed justice system described by criminal justice reform advocates does not have statistical backing for most criminal cases.
The Data
There’s not much in the way of data on the percentages of crimes not prosecuted, which is why I updated a previous article on the topic. Updated data are principally local examples and new charts from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ. I recently Googled and used artificial intelligence to search for related terms and discovered little on the topic.
There is updated data on arrests or crimes not prosecuted from “Federal Justice Statistics,” from the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
The data suggests that 22.3 percent of all cases were declined from prosecution. A declination is a decision by a U.S. attorney not to pursue criminal prosecution of a referral from a law enforcement agency.
When taking a look at individual crimes, however, the percentage of declined prosecutions is much higher, ranging to over 45 percent. 31.6 percent of violent crimes were not prosecuted. 43.6 percent of property crimes were not prosecuted. And this is after an additional 9 percent were “disposed” by a US Magistrate.
See the appendix of this article as to what “disposed by a US Magistrate” means. The statistic indicating that 9 percent of federal prosecutions were “disposed” by a U.S. Magistrate “could” include cases dropped from prosecution. A U.S. Magistrate Judge can dismiss cases for various reasons, such as insufficient evidence, procedural errors, or as part of a negotiated resolution.
Federal Prosecutions-Bureau Of Justice Statistics
Do These Numbers Offer Insight as to State Prosecutions?
I offer this data with the caveat that federal numbers will take some explaining and that the federal experience may not apply to understanding state and local criminal justice systems.
The federal criminal justice system is considerably different from state justice efforts with a focus on immigration and drug cases. For example, a small percentage of federal crimes are violent. Most state incarcerations are for violent crimes.
There is data (below) regarding state felony charges dismissed (or not prosecuted), compiled by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Felony Convictions in 75 Large Urban Counties-State Felonies
From the Bureau of Justice Statistics, we get a glimpse of outcomes for state felonies. The report does not deal directly with prosecutions, only convictions. I assume that most dismissals were based on prosecutors declining to proceed based on a lack of evidence or uncooperative witnesses.
Among cases that were adjudicated, 66% resulted in a conviction.
Twenty-five percent were dismissed and one percent were acquitted.
Nine percent were deferred or diverted (see the asterisk for “other outcome”).
Nearly all convictions were the result of a guilty plea rather than a trial.
Chart
Source: Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties.
Juvenile Offenders Prosecuted in Adult Courts
There are more non-convictions (54 percent) than convictions (44 percent) for juveniles charged in adult courts. This includes dismissals, not guilty findings, deferred prosecutions, cases sent back to juvenile or family court for case processing, and unspecified non-convictions.
Local Example: Defendants Walk Free In Nearly Two-Thirds of Violent Crimes
The article from the Philadelphia Inquirer (2009) is an example of how justice can get bogged down to such a degree as to have an impact on an entire metropolitan area.
The Inquirer cites a considerable number of data sources indicating, “Philadelphia defendants walk free on all charges in nearly two-thirds of violent-crime cases. Among large urban counties, Philadelphia has the nation’s lowest felony-conviction rate.”
Only one in 10 people charged with gun assaults is convicted of that charge, the newspaper found. Only two in 10 accused armed robbers are found guilty of armed robbery. Only one in four accused rapists is found guilty of rape.
Washington, D.C.: In 2022, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia chose not to prosecute 67% of arrests, a significant increase from 31% in 2016.
Additional Example
Examples from RAINN (Rape, Abuse and Incest National Network) provide what could be the best graph data as to prosecutions and felony convictions.
Out of 1,000 robberies, there are 167 arrests, 37 get referred to prosecutors, and 22 lead to a felony conviction.
Out of 1,000 Assault and Battery’s, there are 255 arrests, 105 are referred to prosecutors, and 41 lead to felony convictions.
Out of 1,000 rapes, 57 result in arrests, 11 are referred to prosecutors, and 7 lead to a felony conviction.
See RAINN
Background
We know that the vast majority of crime in the United States is not reported and that two in five reported crimes end in an arrest per federal data.
Few have been able to get a clear picture of prosecution rates. Many arrests are not prosecuted. How many? No one knows for sure, but occasionally, a newspaper like the Philadelphia Inquirer takes on the task and the results are usually dismal.
It’s my opinion based on the data above that prosecutors in many large jurisdictions routinely throw out 25 to 30 percent of cases for a wide variety of reasons. In some cities, the percentages will be much higher. That doesn’t include diverted or deferred cases.
I assume that a high number of misdemeanors are dismissed by prosecutors. They simply do not have the time to take lower lever cases to court.
A minimum of 90 percent of the remaining cases are plea-bargained. The prosecutor offers reduced charges and the defendant pleads guilty. Few criminal cases go to trial.
Most who plead guilty to felonies do not get prison time per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Conclusions
Yes, the NBC investigation indicating that less than 4% of reported rapes, sexual assaults, and child sexual abuse allegations ever result in a sex crime conviction is shocking. Rape and sexual assault cases are notoriously hard to prosecute because, in many instances, it’s one person’s word against another. Federal crime data indicates that the majority of rape and sex offenses involve a known offender in a residential setting, often without witnesses.
According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics chart above, 68 percent of state rapes resulted in a conviction with 57 resulting in a felony. But with plea-bargaining, that felony may have nothing to do with a sexual assault or a prison sentence. NBC did a nationwide survey through its affiliates but did not use available USDOJ statistics. Regardless, their story is compelling and sad as victims justifiably feel brutalized by the process.
Beyond rapes and sexual assaults, crimes across the board in most jurisdictions involve reduced charges or dropped or deferred prosecutions. I’m assuming that most of this happens in large or urban jurisdictions (examples above) where the number of cases overwhelms the capacity of the justice system meaning that leniency is necessary to keep cases flowing.
Criminal justice reformers demand less prison time and keeping violent juveniles out of the adult system. They oppose restrictions mandated by parole and probation agencies. They are against fines. They see a heavy-handed justice system that imposes too many lengthy state sentences and too many requirements on released offenders.
However, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the great majority of state prison inmates are there for violent crimes or have a history of violence and are rearrested are reincarcerated in overwhelming numbers and percentages. Per BJS, their criminal histories are often extensive with multiple arrests and incarcerations. Per BJS the average prison sentence is relatively short “if” that convicted offender gets prison time at all (most convicted felonies don’t).
But the hard cold reality is that if we prosecuted all charged defendants with their original charges and did not engage in plea bargains, the justice system would shut down in a week.
Appendix-Disposed By A U.S. Magistrate
When the Bureau of Justice Statistics refers to a case being “disposed” by a U.S. Magistrate, it means the case was resolved or finalized at the magistrate level rather than proceeding further in the federal judicial system. U.S. Magistrate Judges handle a variety of duties in federal cases, often involving less complex or lower-level matters, including dismissals. Here’s a breakdown of what “disposed” might entail in this context:
- Initial Hearings and Pretrial Matters: Magistrates often handle preliminary proceedings, such as initial appearances, arraignments, and detention hearings.
- Misdemeanor Cases: U.S. Magistrates have the authority to try and dispose of misdemeanor cases. If the case is resolved at this level, it may involve a guilty plea, a bench trial, or sentencing.
- Plea Agreements: In some cases, defendants may enter a plea before a magistrate judge, resolving the case without further proceedings.
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