Highlights
When it comes to crime in America, who do we believe? FBI with a 3 percent drop in violent crime, or the National Crime Victimization Survey with the largest increase in violent crime in the country’s history? Both are agencies of the U.S. Department of Justice offering 2023 data.
FBI data is based on crimes reported to law enforcement and the vast majority do not.
The National Crime Victimization Survey is a survey of all crimes except murders.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former senior crime prevention and statistics specialist at the Ministry of Justice Clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former adjunct associate professor of criminology and public affairs at the University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the national media campaign “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime.” Successful media campaigns against crime produced by the state.
Thirty-five years leading award-winning (50+) public relations for state and national criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often focusing on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcast series. Produced a unique and emulated style of proactive government public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study – Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Media Success: Everything You Need to Survive Reporters and Your Organization‘ available from Amazon and other booksellers.
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Article
There are two primary U.S. Department of Justice reports on crime. One of them is based on crimes reported for law enforcement and compiled by the FBI. The vast majority of crimes go unreported to police and are not included in FBI reports.
The FBI offers a 3 percent decrease in violent crime by 2023.
Homicides fell by 11.6 percent, which was expected as homicides had risen by about 30 percent nationally and 50 percent in cities in recent years. Sustaining a 30 to 50 percent increase in homicides would be virtually impossible.
The other national report is it National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) from the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, which includes an annual survey. The survey is over 50 years old and was created to cover all criminal activity in the US except murders (you can’t interview dead people).
The largest increase in violent crime in the country (2022) largely continued into 2023, according to data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Unreported crime
In 2022, this was approximately 40 percent of violent crimes reported to law enforcement according to the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics.
For property crime this was approximately 30 percent.
According to USDOJ agencies, this was approximately 25 percent of juvenile crime reported. In the case of identity theft, this was the case in approximately 7 percent of incidents reported. There were approximately 12,000 hate crime incidents reported to the FBI and approximately 250,000 hate crime incidents were recorded annually by the Bureau of Justice Statistics NCVS.
For 2023, the National Crime Victimization Survey states that violent crimes reporting rose to about 45 percent (from 41.5 percent in 2022), but the feds are offering a 3 percent reduction.
Property crime reporting via the NCVS has fallen slightly, but still about 30 percent; the FBI is offering reductions on all property crimes except auto theft.
We choose to base policy and judgment on crime largely on crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI. Their new report will be widely reported in the mainstream media, while NCVS data is still missing from most analyses.
Representing FBI data reported crime, not total crime.
The criminology community has traditionally supported the National Crime Victim Survey as a tool much more accurate overview of crime in the United States. Crimes reported law enforcement through the FBI involved 14 million criminal offenses, compared to more than 40 million through the NCVS (including identity theft).
FBI releases nation’s crime statistics for 2023: Violence drops 3 percent
The FBI has released detailed data on more than 14 million crimes for 2023 reported by participating law enforcement agencies to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. More than 16,000 agencies, covering a combined population of 94.3% residents, have submitted data to the UCR program through the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Summary Reporting System.
FBI crime statistics, based on 2023 reported data, show that national violent crime decreased by an estimated 3.0 percent in 2023 compared to 2022 estimates.
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded an estimated national decline of 11.6% in 2023 compared to the previous year.
In 2023, the estimated number of crimes in the revised rape category decreased by an estimated 9.4%.
The number of serious assaults will decrease by an estimated 2.8 percent in 2023.
Robberies showed an estimated decrease of 0.3 percent nationally.
Total property crime fell by 2.4 percent.
The number of burglaries fell by 7.6 percent.
Theft fell by 4.4 percent.
Motor vehicle theft increased by 12.6 percent.
In 2023, 16,009 agencies participated in hate crime collection, with a population coverage of 95.2%. Law enforcement agencies filed incident reports involving 11,862 criminal incidents and 13,829 related crimes because they were motivated by bias toward race, ethnicity, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, disability, gender and gender identity.
According to this dataset, the number of reported hate crime incidents decreased by 0.6%, from 10,687 in 2022 to 10,627 in 2023.
The full analysis is located at the FBI crime data investigator.
National Crime Victimization Survey Releases crime statistics for 2023: largest increase in violent crime in the country’s history
The National Crime Victim Survey, in a 2023 report for the 2022 calendar year, provided the largest increase in violent crime in the country’s history (44 percent) per analyst Jeff AsherAnd The Marshall Project.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics did not provide the percentage increase (but has provided percentage increases several times in the past).
According to the press release (September 12, 2024) from the US Department of Justice for the new 2023 report: “Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) indicate that in 2023, the rate of nonfatal violent victimization in the United States was 22.5 victims per 1,000 persons age 12 or older. which was comparable to the 2022 rate of 23.5 violent victims per 1,000 persons aged 12 or older.”
According to the headline of the September 12, 2024 USDOJ press release: “Victimization unchanged year after year…’
That means the record 44 percent increase in U.S. violence will largely continue from 2022 to 2023.
It remains the largest increase in violent crime in the country’s history.
Many of us who write about crime expected a reduction in violence by 2023 through the National Crime Victimization Survey, simply because the increases for the last report for 2022 were extremely high. Our assumption of ‘what goes up, comes down’ was wrong rates of general violence. The massive increase in violence and juvenile crime (separate NCVS report) for 2022 largely persists for 2023.
According to the NCVS, households in the United States experienced 13.6 million property casualties in 2023. The number of property victims was similar to the number in 2022, but higher than the 12.8 million in 2019. Property crime includes burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft and other forms of home theft.
Conclusions
Based on 2023 crime totals according to the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, the nation’s largest increase in violent crime in 2022 largely continued into 2023.
Based on crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI: 45 percent of violent crimes reported decreased by 3 percent.
There will be an analysis of comparisons between the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey.
For example, according to the NCVS, there has been a huge drop in the number of reported robberies, while the FBI reports a small drop.
According to the NCVS, there has been a large decrease in the number of reported car thefts. According to the FBI, car thefts have increased.
But the biggest issue to consider is that most of the declines reported by the FBI are quite small. An estimated 3.0 percent decrease in violent crime? The number of serious assaults has fallen by an estimated 2.8 percent? Robbery showed an estimated decline of 0.3 percent? Total property crime has fallen by 2.4 percent?
With about 45 percent of reported violent crimes and about 30 percent of reported property crimes (property crime is about 80 percent of total crime), the FBI’s numbers above could easily increase.
They are simply too small to be embraced as fact, especially when you compare them to the enormous numbers produced by the National Crime Victimization Survey.
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