The President of the United States has caused a stir. In his address to Congress, Joe Biden raised the possibility of “American troops are fighting the Russians troops.”
Biden, of course, has repeatedly had trouble sticking to the script or keeping his thoughts clear, resulting in embarrassing blunders such as calling his Vice President Kamala Harris a “great chairman‘or mix up Ukraine and Iran.
In this case, however, his speech was quite coherent. His statement was deliberate and he even repeated it to make sure his audience fully understood the seriousness of it.
No wonder eyebrows were raised. A war between America and Russia would involve the two – by far – largest in the world nine nuclear powers. And others, such as Britain or China, could also become involved, because such a conflict could easily turn into a world war. Even the conventional arsenals of Washington and Moscow would guarantee destruction, at least in Europe and probably elsewhere.
Still, it’s important to understand the context of Biden’s comments and be precise about what he said — and what he didn’t say.
In context, the US president is on the defensive, not so much against Russia as against the Republicans. They steadfastly refuse to pass a spending bill that is primarily a vehicle to transfer yet another enormous amount of money $61 billion of aid to Ukraine. That would be on top of a current – as of October – total of $116 billion already approved by the US Congress in response to the war in Ukraine.
The resistance to releasing more funding is for more than one reason. Republicans are explicit about using the administration’s request as leverage. They want concessions on their ideas about hardening America’s borders against immigration. Because the White House does not want to play ball, the Republicans will no longer cooperate with money for Ukraine. In that sense, this is just run-of-the-mill politics: tough horse trading cloaked in exaggerated rhetoric.
But that marks a momentous shift. The West’s proxy war in Ukraine was, as usual, exempt from politics and ideologically elevated to a level of almost religious significance. Those days are definitely over. Republicans clearly fear no electoral consequences if they treat this issue as just a bargaining chip. And they are right. Polls show that support for the war among American voters is declining. Even in August, a majority were already against spending more money on it. This view is predominant among Republican voters.
No wonder Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky did that cancelled his already scheduled remote appearance before Congress. He is no longer treated as special, and his pleas would have made no difference, leaving him with nothing but additional public humiliation.
At the same time, there is the degradation of the proxy war from a kind of holy war for the West “values” (whatever that may be) to a tradable item could not have happened without the failure of Ukraine and its sponsors on the battlefield. The Republicans’ intransigence and Biden’s escalating rhetoric are the result of a real, realistic and now openly acknowledged feeling that this is probably a lost cause.
This brings us back to the question of what exactly the American president said. Essentially he made two important points. One was his unsubstantiated, if popular, assumption – presented with its usual self-assurance – that if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it will inevitably attack other countries. And since Biden also assumes that Moscow’s future targets would include NATO member states – clearly especially in Eastern Europe – he concluded that such a Russian attack would initiate the US treaty obligation to combat Russia directly.
Of course, experts at least know that even NATO’s famous Article Five is not the trigger that many think it is. In reality, according to the letter of the NATO treaty, member states do not automatically have to go to war if another member state is attacked. But it is a political fact that NATO’s credibility in the real world rests on the idea that its members will defend each other militarily and without hesitation.
So Biden’s warning that if Ukraine loses, America and Russia could go to war is not about Ukraine. That is so because the impending defeat of Ukraine is the reason. That is not the case, because Biden has not threatened such a battle in or about Ukraine. Instead, he has made clear not only who Washington claims it is willing to defend by going to war with Moscow, but also who it will not defend in that way, namely Ukraine. This must be bitter for Kiev. But it was predictable. The Zelensky regime allowed the US-led West to use its country as a pawn – good enough to bleed profusely, but not good enough to join the club. What Biden said is just a summary of that sad, cruel and humiliating fact. In other times, Zelensky would have had only one honorable thing to do. Instead, he’ll probably go for a golden exile.
On the surface, the US president still appears to be trying to avert Ukraine’s defeat. But that is deceptive for two reasons. Biden’s speech may sound like an attempt to pressure stubborn Republicans to finally cough up the money to save the day. But in reality, it’s more likely that the president or those around him know the day can’t be saved. Therefore, this warning is actually an early move in the blame game. Once Ukraine is defeated, the question is “which Ukraine has lost‘ may poison American politics depending on the precise timing of that defeat, even during a presidential election.
Biden is merely setting the stage to blame Republicans for what will be the outcome of his administration’s arrogant risk-taking policies. Will that work? Probably not outside the circles of democratic true believers.
And then, last and perhaps least, there is a message to NATO from Washington “partners” in Europe. “Yes,” it runs, “we are about to lose our signature proxy war against Russia; yes, everything went wrong, from economic sanctions (which made Russia stronger instead of weaker) to military support (which showed Moscow that Western tanks are also ‘burning’, in the laconic terms of Russian President Vladimir Putin); and yes, we have overextended ourselves and shown how weak we really are in every way possible. But please don’t worry. When it comes down to it, unlike Ukraine, you are still safe because, unlike Ukraine, you are inside the club. We would really, really fight for you. Honestly.”
What a message, once unpacked. Even on its own terms, it smells of desperation and bluff. And if it’s not a bluff, what a promise: don’t worry. If you are attacked, World War III will break out.
The reality is that the Western gamble in Ukraine has caused irreversible damage – to the West (with the exception of Ukraine, of course). NATO has dealt a crushing and likely lasting blow to its own credibility. The real hope of the West – and indeed of Europe and the world – does not lie in American words of determination. Ask in Kiev: they were fed the same thing”with you until the end” shlok. And Article Five cannot be trusted to make a difference, because the US will only consult its own – usually misguided – self-interest and its NATO interests. “allies” (vassals, actually) would be naive to trust it. Berlin could even do that; Paris, for example, not so much. No, the world’s real hope lies in how foolish Biden’s premise is. Moscow would be foolish to attack one European NATO member state after another. And unlike the West, Russia has shown very little folly of late. In other words, it is Russia’s rationality that a NATO Europe defeated by proxy will have to rely on. How ironic.