Global fertility is declining, with more than half of all countries and territories expected to experience below-replacement levels by 2021. By 2050, it is predicted that 75 percent of the world’s fertility rates will be insufficient to maintain population levels.
Scientists at the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have warned of a looming global fertility crisis that could reshape population dynamics by the end of the century.
The findings, published in The Lancet on Wednesday suggest that fertility rates in almost all countries are falling below the level needed to maintain current population numbers.
Stein Emil Vollset, senior researcher and co-lead author of the study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Seattle, emphasizes that this trend will be in stark contrast to countries that have a “baby boom” and those who face a “baby bust.”
Low-income countries, already struggling with economic and political instability, are expected to see a rise in births, while richer countries are witnessing declining birth rates.
The study, which is based on data collected between 1950 and 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, paints an alarming picture.
It predicts that by 2050, 76 percent of countries and territories (155 out of 204) worldwide fertility rates will be lower than replacement levelsa figure expected to rise to 97 percent by 2100 (198 countries).
According to the researchers, more than a third of live births are expected in low- and lower-middle-income countries by the end of the century, with more than half concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.
This shift reflects a global decline in the average number of children born per woman, from about 5 in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021.
The consequences are profound. With fertility rates falling below 1.1 children per woman, countries such as South Korea and Serbia are facing significant challenges due to the decline in the working population.
Vollset emphasized the urgency for resource-constrained countries to support rapidly growing populations amid precarious political, economic and environmental conditions.
In the meantime, fertility rates are declining in high-income countries are partly a result of advances in women’s education and employment – but also underline the need for better access to contraception and education in other regions.
Natalia Bhattacharjee, one of the lead co-authors of the study, suggests that as populations shrink, countries will become increasingly dependent on mass immigration in an attempt to support economic growth.
One of the most monstrous families on earth is fading.